On the Evolution of U.S. Temperature Dynamics

Climate change is a multidimensional shift. While much research has documented rising mean temperature levels, we also examine range-based measures of daily temperature volatility. Speci fically, using data for select U.S. cities over the past half-century, we compare the evolving time series dynamics of the average temperature level, AVG, and the diurnal temperature range, DTR (the difference between the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at a given location). We characterize trend and seasonality in these two series using linear models with time-varying coefficients. These straightforward yet flexible approximations provide evidence of evolving DTR seasonality, stable AVG seasonality, and conditionally Gaussian but heteroskedastic innovations for both DTR and AVG.

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