The Effects of the East Asian Crisis on the Region’s Energy Consumption

The potential impact of continued economic growth on world energy markets could be substantial. Rapid growth projections into the next ten and twenty years suggested that the East Asian area (Korea, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore, where Japan is included with the OECD high-income countries) will be a major center of world GDP. Thus, the region’s burgeoning energy needs would make an important difference in the supply-demand balance and would raise world energy prices. The environmental implications for the rise in energy are evident. This paper analyzes the implications of the l997 East Asian crisis on the projections of energy used by this region. Estimates of the energy elasticities based on pooled cross section and time series are used to forecast energy and petroleum consumption and imports into the region under a variety of assumptions about the future economic outlook and policy.

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Paper Number
00-13
Year
2000