Marriage, Fertility and Divorce: A Dynamic Equilibrium Analysis of Social Policy in Canada (Preliminary Version)
In this paper, we propose an answer to the following question: if Canada had adopted a social policy similar to that which prevailed until recently in the U.S., would Canada’s income distribution and rate of single-parenthood have looked more like those of the US? Our answer is based on simulations of the Canadian economy under the two alternative social policies, and thus rules out noise from other variations between the two policy regimes. We find that U.S.-style transfer policies can indeed account for most of the higher rate of single-parenthood in the U.S. The Canadian policy is also more effective in alleviating poverty: the poorest 20% of the population are significantly worse off under the U.S. policy.