The Arctic provides an important barometer for the ways and pace at which the planet’s climate is shifting. New statistical analysis by Penn Professor of Economics Francis X. Diebold and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Executive Vice President Glenn D. Rudebusch finds a sixty percent chance of an effectively ice-free summer Arctic by 2040, much sooner than typical predictions from current climate models. Diebold and Rudebusch hope to use their methods to help calibrate climate models and improve global climate prediction.
Penn Today coverage: https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/Arctic-could-have-almost-no-summer-sea-ice-decades-sooner-than-expected
PIER research paper: https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/20-001%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf