Aureo de Paula
Department of Economics
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in't."
-- Hamlet (II, ii, 206)
1. Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games with Incomplete Information
(with Xun Tang)
Econometrica, 80 (1), January 2012 (pp.143-172)
2. The Informal Sector: An Equilibrium Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Brazil
(with Jose A. Scheinkman)
Review of Income and Wealth, 57 (S1), May 2011 (S8-S26)
* Most of the analysis in this paper appeared previously as part of the manuscript "The Informal Sector" (NBER Working Paper 13486; PIER Working Paper 08-018)
3. Value Added Taxes, Chain Effects and Informality
(with Jose A. Scheinkman)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, October 2010 (pp.195-221)
Internet Appendix: pdf
Data and Estimation Files: zip
* Most of the analysis in this paper appeared previously as part of the manuscript "The Informal Sector" (NBER Working Paper 13486; PIER Working Paper 08-018)
4. Interdependent Durations
(with Bo Honore)
Review of Economic Studies, 77(3), July 2010 (pp.1138–1163)
5. Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions
Journal of Econometrics, 148(1), January 2009 (pp.56-71)
Internet Appendix: pdf
Older, slightly longer version: pdf)
6. Conditional Moments and Independence
The American Statistician, 62(3), August 2008 (pp.219-221)
7. Effects of the Mercosur Integration on External Savings Attraction Mechanisms
(in Portuguese) (with Afonso Bevilaqua and Marcio G.P. Garcia), in Renato Baumann (org.),
Mercosul -- Avancos e Desafios da Integracao, Brasilia: IPEA/CEPAL, 2001
.
8. A Note on the Optimal Composition of the Public Debt: Reflections on the Brazilian Case
(in Portuguese) (with Ilan Goldfajn), Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics, December 2000
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. 1. How Beliefs about HIV Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi (revised and resubmitted)
(with Gil Shapira and Petra Todd)
First Version: October 2008
This Version: October 2011
* This paper is substantially revised from an earlier version that was circulated under the same title (PARC Working Paper No.9, 2008; PIER Working Paper 08-041)
2. Identification and Estimation of Voter Preferences (submitted)
(with Antonio Merlo)
This Version: December 2010
3. Interdependent Durations in Joint Retirement Decisions
(with Bo Honore)
(pdf)
This Version: December 2010
Very preliminary! New version coming soon.
4. A MRC Estimator for Semi-parametric Ordered Choice Models
(with Bo Honore)
> Work in Progress
. 1. Econometrics.
Multiple Equilibria and Signs of Interaction Effects in Games with Incomplete Information (Extensions)
(with Xun Tang)
Identification in Duration Models with Correlated Unobserved Heterogeneity
(with Stefan Hoderlein)
Varieties of Sample Selection in Duration Models
(with Antonio Merlo)
2. Empirical and Applied Micro.
Undocumented Migration with Endogenous Coyote Prices
(with Tim Halliday)
Working paper coming soon.
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Another Look at the Endogenous Determination of Time Preferences: The Effect of Uncertainty
Behavioral Determinants of HIV/AIDS: A Dynamic Model of Marriage and Cheating in Malawi
(with Gil Shapira and Petra Todd)
> Older Working Papers
Analysts' Forecasts and the Reflection Problem
Liquidity and Dividend Policy
(with Deniz Igan and Marcelo Pinheiro)
First Version: October 2004
Latest Version: November 2006
Trade Networks (pdf)
January, 2002.
The Two Sides of the Coin: Monetary Effects on Exchange Rates in Emerging
and Developed Countries (pdf)
(in Portuguese), Master's Thesis, PUC-Rio, July 2000
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> Non-Academic Articles
Como Sera o Amanha? Perspectivas para 2009?! (January, 2009)
in Portuguese). (Commentary on the limitations of economic forecasting prepared for the news site www.sidneyrezende.com)
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