"Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective"

We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties - particularly as regards serial correlation - differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side measure and lead to substantially-revised views regarding the properties of GDP.


Paper Number: 13-016

Paper Year: 2013


S. Boragan Aruoba
Francis Diebold
Jeremy Nalewaik
Frank Schorfheide
Dongho Song